The truth is no one knows for sure but here’s what the signs say: Growth
- We are the cheapest big city on the west coast and it’s expected that 20,000-ish people are moving here each year.
- We look cheap to most of the people moving here.
- Rents are still rising.
- Multiple offers are happening earlier than last year.
- These interest rates are not sustainable based on history. This is about as close as you can get to free money.
I can imagine you are asking, “What about a meltdown like we saw ten years ago?” Barring a war or the government not doing something epically stupid (fingers crossed) here’s why I don’t think we are poised for a similar meltdown.
Mortgages are still hard to get. In 2005, if you could fog up a mirror, you could buy a house.
The kind of loans available were not good. “Liar loans” where you could state whatever you wanted as your income for any job. 2-year adjustable rates with huge interest rate bumps and loans for 120% of the sales price.
The economy goes in cycles and we will have a slowing at some point, it always happens. There are other indicators that the economy is more solid than the last run up.