This is a graph I have been wanting to see for a while but now I realize it doesn’t tell the real story I thought it would. From 2007 to 2008 we lost a third of our sales volume. This was a double whammy of falling prices and less homes sold.
2011 was the absolute bottom for sales and price. The average price in 2011 jumped up in the Spring and then almost landed a back at where it started for the year and that was the beginning of the run up. So here we are today at almost $14 Billion in sales and while that number is dramatic when looking at 2005, it doesn’t tell the whole story.
In 2005 we closed 37,403 homes. 2017 only had 31,624 homes close which is also about 1,000 less than last year.
To top off all of these numbers, we had 8000 less listings in 2017 versus 2005.
My crystal ball broke a long time ago. With that said, we’ve already seen high demand at the beginning of the year. We are seeing multiple offers in the suburbs already. All of those people who said they would wait until the holidays held true to their word and are just sucking up the inventory.
I think this continued run up, low inventory which is still under 2 months, is holding a lot of people back from selling. They are either scared of a bubble or they can’t find anything they like. As long as inventory stays low and rent keeps going up, I have to imagine price will climb until interest rates get too high.
I’m still looking forward to 4-5 months of inventory which is a healthy market where neither the Seller nor Buyer feel they have the upper hand and negotiations bet a bit more balanced. If we added 6,000 – 8,000 homes to the listing market over the year, I think we could get to that healthier balance.
As always, if you want to geek out over the numbers and see the last 20+ years worth of Portland area real estate numbers, go here bit.ly/PortlandMarketAction and if you like to talk numbers, call me 503-750-6494.
Mike Rohrig AKA StatsMan